The chances that rain and wind from Tropical Storm Erin will hit the East Coast have risen slightly this week.

Tropical Storm Erin is forecast to become the season’s first hurricane by Thursday. The storm, which earned a name early Monday and is churning in the open Atlantic, could strengthen into a major hurricane of at least Category 3 strength by this weekend.

For now, most reliable computer models that meteorologists use show Erin curving away from the United States, spinning off the East Coast later in August.